Resolution-risk intelligence
Most markets do not pay on the headline.
They pay if the contract resolves.
One Memo per market. We name the contract, the source, the deadline, and the dispute path — what actually decides settlement.
Read the MemoMarkets we’ve read
Notable past casesCardi B's Super Bowl appearance
Resolves Yes if Cardi B publicly performs as a musical act at the halftime show, as confirmed by official broadcast.
78/100Resolved · DisputedIran Supreme Leader carveout
Resolves Yes if Ali Khamenei is publicly removed or no longer holds the office — subject to a death-carveout clause and platform interpretation.
91/100In litigationRussia controls Kherson by Nov 15, 2022
Resolves Yes if a designated source confirms Russian control of Kherson city before 23:59 UTC on Nov 15, 2022 — subject to conflicting battlefield reports across major news sources.
79/100Resolved · Source-disputedStarliner returns its crew to Earth by Sept 2024
Resolves Yes if Boeing Starliner returns its originally-launched crew to Earth before Sept 30, 2024 — subject to interpretation of “returns crew” (on Starliner vs. by any vehicle).
73/100Resolved · Definitionally disputed
What a Memo reads for.
The workAmbiguity
Where ordinary-language meaning diverges from contract meaning.
Source
The named source that actually decides settlement.
Timing
The determination window vs the event time.
Dispute
Platform discretion, challenge process, fallback rules.
Featured Memo.
Memo · 014 · February 2026The Super Bowl halftime market generated roughly $57M in aggregate volume across Kalshi and Polymarket. Same facts. Two settlements. The Memo below is what we read before they diverged.
What the contract says
This market resolves Yes if Cardi B publicly performs as a musical act at the 2026 Super Bowl LX halftime show, as confirmed by official NFL broadcast or league communications — subject to platform interpretation of “perform.”
Resolution Risk we measured
Driver: Ambiguity + Dispute
Where the headline diverges from the contract
What it appears to ask
Did Cardi B perform at the Super Bowl?
What it pays on
Did Cardi B publicly perform as a musical act, by the platform's definition of perform, on the broadcast?
How it actually resolved
Polymarket resolved Yes. Kalshi invoked a conservative reading and settled at the last traded price (74¢ to No, 26¢ to Yes). Same facts. Two outcomes.
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